{
  "schema_version": "0.3.0",
  "artifact_stage": "live_public_sources",
  "snapshot_date": "2026-05-22",
  "generated_at": "2026-05-26T14:45:23Z",
  "last_updated_display": "Tue, 26 May 2026 14:45:23 GMT",
  "data_freshness": "All public sources loaded",
  "source_health": {
    "ok": 6,
    "failed": 0,
    "fallback_series": 0
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "treasury_mts",
      "name": "U.S. Treasury FiscalData MTS",
      "status": "ok",
      "latest_observation": "2026-04-30",
      "fetched_at": "2026-05-26T14:45:30Z",
      "url": "https://api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov/services/api/fiscal_service/v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_1",
      "message": null
    },
    {
      "id": "fred_gdp",
      "name": "FRED GDP",
      "status": "ok",
      "latest_observation": "2026-01-01",
      "fetched_at": "2026-05-26T14:45:30Z",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP",
      "message": null
    },
    {
      "id": "fred_debt_gdp",
      "name": "FRED public debt / GDP",
      "status": "ok",
      "latest_observation": "2025-10-01",
      "fetched_at": "2026-05-26T14:45:31Z",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYGFGDQ188S",
      "message": null
    },
    {
      "id": "nyfed_acm",
      "name": "NY Fed ACM term premium",
      "status": "ok",
      "latest_observation": "2026-04-30",
      "fetched_at": "2026-05-26T14:45:31Z",
      "url": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/data_indicators/acmPlot_data.csv",
      "message": null
    },
    {
      "id": "fred_t5yifr",
      "name": "FRED 5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate",
      "status": "ok",
      "latest_observation": "2026-05-22",
      "fetched_at": "2026-05-26T14:45:35Z",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR",
      "message": null
    },
    {
      "id": "fred_dgs10",
      "name": "FRED 10-year Treasury constant maturity rate",
      "status": "ok",
      "latest_observation": "2026-05-21",
      "fetched_at": "2026-05-26T14:45:35Z",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
      "message": null
    }
  ],
  "risk": {
    "label": "Elevated",
    "score": 43,
    "scale": 100,
    "summary": "The rule-based risk index reads Elevated at 43 / 100. Observable fiscal pressure is driven primarily by interest burden and deficit persistence; Treasury market-functioning and credibility signals are treated as constraint-evidence proxies, not direct proof of a fiscal-dominance regime.",
    "components": {
      "interest_outlays": 1,
      "deficit": 1,
      "debt": 1,
      "term": 1,
      "expectations": 0,
      "volatility": 1
    }
  },
  "changes": [
    "Interest outlays / receipts (TTM) is 19.6% (+0.19 pp vs. prior observation).",
    "TTM deficit / GDP is 5.27% (+0.13 pp vs. prior observation).",
    "10Y Treasury term premium is 0.73% (+0.06 pp vs. prior observation).",
    "5y5y inflation expectations is 2.26% (+0.01 pp vs. prior observation)."
  ],
  "pillars": [
    {
      "title": "Fiscal pressure",
      "description": "Interest burden relative to receipts.",
      "metric": "Interest outlays / receipts (TTM)",
      "value": "19.6%",
      "delta": "+0.19 pp",
      "state": "Watch"
    },
    {
      "title": "Fiscal arithmetic",
      "description": "Deficit persistence and debt-stock context.",
      "metric": "TTM deficit / GDP",
      "value": "5.27%",
      "delta": "+0.13 pp",
      "state": "Watch"
    },
    {
      "title": "Treasury market functioning",
      "description": "Open proxy for Treasury yield-volatility stress.",
      "metric": "10Y yield-change volatility",
      "value": "77.8 bp",
      "delta": "-0.5 bp",
      "state": "Watch"
    },
    {
      "title": "Credibility & expectations",
      "description": "Inflation compensation and term-premium gauges.",
      "metric": "5y5y inflation expectations",
      "value": "2.26%",
      "delta": "+0.01 pp",
      "state": "Low"
    }
  ],
  "regime_map": {
    "x_label": "Constraint evidence",
    "y_label": "Fiscal pressure",
    "x": 0.33,
    "y": 0.5,
    "quadrants": [
      "Pressure without clear constraint evidence",
      "Dominance risk",
      "Benign",
      "Constrained but low fiscal pressure"
    ]
  },
  "interpretation": {
    "title": "Interpretation",
    "body": "The rule-based risk index reads Elevated at 43 / 100. Observable fiscal pressure is driven primarily by interest burden and deficit persistence; Treasury market-functioning and credibility signals are treated as constraint-evidence proxies, not direct proof of a fiscal-dominance regime."
  },
  "series": [
    {
      "id": "interest_outlays_receipts_t12m",
      "title": "Interest outlays / receipts (TTM)",
      "subtitle": "TTM interest outlays as a share of federal receipts",
      "unit": "%",
      "method": "FD-AR-01",
      "source": "U.S. Treasury FiscalData Monthly Treasury Statement",
      "source_url": "https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/",
      "color": "#0b2a5b",
      "latest": 19.62,
      "latest_date": "2026-04-30",
      "delta": "+0.19 pp",
      "status": "live",
      "source_status": "live",
      "reference_lines": [
        {
          "value": 12,
          "label": "Watch threshold"
        },
        {
          "value": 20,
          "label": "High threshold"
        }
      ],
      "points": [
        {
          "date": "2016-02-29",
          "value": 8.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-03-31",
          "value": 8.47
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-04-30",
          "value": 8.49
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-05-31",
          "value": 8.46
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-06-30",
          "value": 8.65
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-07-31",
          "value": 8.71
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-08-31",
          "value": 8.69
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-09-30",
          "value": 8.69
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-10-31",
          "value": 8.79
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-11-30",
          "value": 8.97
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-12-31",
          "value": 9.18
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-01-31",
          "value": 9.15
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-02-28",
          "value": 9.28
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-03-31",
          "value": 9.54
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-04-30",
          "value": 9.64
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-05-31",
          "value": 9.49
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-06-30",
          "value": 9.42
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-07-31",
          "value": 9.28
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-08-31",
          "value": 9.25
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-09-30",
          "value": 9.35
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-10-31",
          "value": 9.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-11-30",
          "value": 9.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-12-31",
          "value": 9.55
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-01-31",
          "value": 9.62
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-02-28",
          "value": 9.72
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-03-31",
          "value": 9.85
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-04-30",
          "value": 9.87
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-05-31",
          "value": 10.14
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-06-30",
          "value": 10.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-07-31",
          "value": 10.72
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-08-31",
          "value": 10.94
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-09-30",
          "value": 11.16
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-10-31",
          "value": 11.26
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-11-30",
          "value": 11.26
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-12-31",
          "value": 11.64
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-01-31",
          "value": 11.77
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-02-28",
          "value": 11.79
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-03-31",
          "value": 11.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-04-30",
          "value": 11.84
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-05-31",
          "value": 12.09
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-06-30",
          "value": 12.22
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-07-31",
          "value": 12.15
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-08-31",
          "value": 12.16
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-09-30",
          "value": 12.23
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-10-31",
          "value": 12.27
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-11-30",
          "value": 12.22
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-12-31",
          "value": 12.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-01-31",
          "value": 12.14
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-02-29",
          "value": 12.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-03-31",
          "value": 12.18
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-04-30",
          "value": 13.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-05-31",
          "value": 12.85
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-06-30",
          "value": 12.52
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-07-31",
          "value": 11.18
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-08-31",
          "value": 11.31
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-09-30",
          "value": 11.33
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-10-31",
          "value": 11.29
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-11-30",
          "value": 11.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-12-31",
          "value": 10.96
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-01-31",
          "value": 10.74
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-02-28",
          "value": 10.44
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-03-31",
          "value": 10.22
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-04-30",
          "value": 9.76
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-05-31",
          "value": 9.36
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-06-30",
          "value": 9.45
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-07-31",
          "value": 10.43
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-08-31",
          "value": 10.47
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-09-30",
          "value": 10.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-10-31",
          "value": 10.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-11-30",
          "value": 9.93
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-12-31",
          "value": 9.94
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-01-31",
          "value": 10.01
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-02-28",
          "value": 10.05
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-03-31",
          "value": 10.21
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-04-30",
          "value": 9.54
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-05-31",
          "value": 10.08
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-06-30",
          "value": 10.12
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-07-31",
          "value": 10.45
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-08-31",
          "value": 10.85
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-09-30",
          "value": 10.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-10-31",
          "value": 11.12
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-11-30",
          "value": 11.53
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-12-31",
          "value": 11.88
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-01-31",
          "value": 12.18
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-02-28",
          "value": 12.43
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-03-31",
          "value": 12.92
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-04-30",
          "value": 13.94
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-05-31",
          "value": 14.28
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-06-30",
          "value": 14.93
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-07-31",
          "value": 15.15
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-08-31",
          "value": 15.29
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-09-30",
          "value": 16.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-10-31",
          "value": 16.48
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-11-30",
          "value": 16.93
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-12-31",
          "value": 17.32
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-01-31",
          "value": 17.63
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-02-29",
          "value": 18.18
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-03-31",
          "value": 18.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-04-30",
          "value": 18.37
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-05-31",
          "value": 18.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-06-30",
          "value": 19.05
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-07-31",
          "value": 19.14
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-08-31",
          "value": 19.28
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-09-30",
          "value": 19.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-10-31",
          "value": 19.66
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-11-30",
          "value": 19.71
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-12-31",
          "value": 19.88
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-01-31",
          "value": 19.99
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-02-28",
          "value": 20.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-03-31",
          "value": 20.15
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-04-30",
          "value": 19.88
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-05-31",
          "value": 19.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-06-30",
          "value": 19.41
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-07-31",
          "value": 19.47
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-08-31",
          "value": 19.57
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-09-30",
          "value": 19.64
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-10-31",
          "value": 19.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-11-30",
          "value": 19.63
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-12-31",
          "value": 19.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-01-31",
          "value": 19.42
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-02-28",
          "value": 19.46
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-31",
          "value": 19.43
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-30",
          "value": 19.62
        }
      ],
      "short_name": "Interest / receipts",
      "formal_name": "Interest outlays / federal receipts, trailing twelve months",
      "update_cadence": "Monthly, after Treasury MTS release",
      "explainer": {
        "what_this_is": "A fiscal-pressure measure of the interest burden relative to federal receipts.",
        "what_it_measures": "How much of the trailing twelve months of receipts is absorbed by Treasury interest outlays.",
        "calculation": "TTM MTS interest outlays divided by TTM MTS federal receipts.",
        "why_it_matters": "A rising share leaves less fiscal room before other spending, taxation, or financing choices become more constrained.",
        "source": "U.S. Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement, Table 1 receipts and Table 3 interest-related outlay rows.",
        "update_cadence": "Monthly.",
        "unit": "Percent of trailing-twelve-month federal receipts.",
        "caveats": "This is an observable fiscal-pressure metric, not direct evidence of fiscal dominance by itself."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "deficit_t12m_gdp",
      "title": "TTM deficit / GDP",
      "subtitle": "TTM federal deficit as a share of nominal GDP",
      "unit": "%",
      "method": "FD-AR-02",
      "source": "U.S. Treasury FiscalData MTS; FRED GDP",
      "source_url": "https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/",
      "color": "#d95f02",
      "latest": 5.27,
      "latest_date": "2026-04-30",
      "delta": "+0.13 pp",
      "status": "live",
      "source_status": "live",
      "reference_lines": [
        {
          "value": 4,
          "label": "Watch threshold"
        },
        {
          "value": 7,
          "label": "High threshold"
        }
      ],
      "points": [
        {
          "date": "2015-12-31",
          "value": 2.58
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-01-31",
          "value": 2.18
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-02-29",
          "value": 2.18
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-03-31",
          "value": 2.48
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-04-30",
          "value": 2.72
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-05-31",
          "value": 2.55
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-06-30",
          "value": 2.79
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-07-31",
          "value": 2.57
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-08-31",
          "value": 2.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-09-30",
          "value": 3.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-10-31",
          "value": 2.59
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-11-30",
          "value": 2.98
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-12-31",
          "value": 3.05
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-01-31",
          "value": 3.04
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-02-28",
          "value": 3.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-03-31",
          "value": 3.39
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-04-30",
          "value": 2.97
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-05-31",
          "value": 3.15
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-06-30",
          "value": 3.65
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-07-31",
          "value": 3.25
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-08-31",
          "value": 3.25
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-09-30",
          "value": 3.38
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-10-31",
          "value": 3.41
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-11-30",
          "value": 3.42
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-12-31",
          "value": 3.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-01-31",
          "value": 3.36
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-02-28",
          "value": 3.47
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-03-31",
          "value": 3.63
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-04-30",
          "value": 3.43
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-05-31",
          "value": 3.72
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-06-30",
          "value": 3.64
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-07-31",
          "value": 3.77
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-08-31",
          "value": 4.28
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-09-30",
          "value": 3.75
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-10-31",
          "value": 3.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-11-30",
          "value": 4.22
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-12-31",
          "value": 4.17
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-01-31",
          "value": 4.33
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-02-28",
          "value": 4.42
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-03-31",
          "value": 4.12
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-04-30",
          "value": 4.32
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-05-31",
          "value": 4.61
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-06-30",
          "value": 4.29
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-07-31",
          "value": 4.43
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-08-31",
          "value": 4.37
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-09-30",
          "value": 4.53
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-10-31",
          "value": 4.64
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-11-30",
          "value": 4.66
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-12-31",
          "value": 4.66
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-01-31",
          "value": 4.89
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-02-29",
          "value": 4.89
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-03-31",
          "value": 4.77
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-04-30",
          "value": 9.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-05-31",
          "value": 10.65
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-06-30",
          "value": 14.94
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-07-31",
          "value": 13.48
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-08-31",
          "value": 13.47
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-09-30",
          "value": 14.43
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-10-31",
          "value": 14.86
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-11-30",
          "value": 14.57
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-12-31",
          "value": 15.16
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-01-31",
          "value": 15.34
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-02-28",
          "value": 15.67
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-03-31",
          "value": 18.05
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-04-30",
          "value": 15.29
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-05-31",
          "value": 14.15
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-06-30",
          "value": 11.21
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-07-31",
          "value": 11.94
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-08-31",
          "value": 11.82
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-09-30",
          "value": 11.57
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-10-31",
          "value": 10.71
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-11-30",
          "value": 10.89
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-12-31",
          "value": 10.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-01-31",
          "value": 9.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-02-28",
          "value": 8.73
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-03-31",
          "value": 6.88
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-04-30",
          "value": 4.65
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-05-31",
          "value": 4.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-06-30",
          "value": 4.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-07-31",
          "value": 3.65
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-08-31",
          "value": 3.84
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-09-30",
          "value": 5.22
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-10-31",
          "value": 4.85
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-11-30",
          "value": 5.06
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-12-31",
          "value": 5.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-01-31",
          "value": 5.79
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-02-28",
          "value": 5.96
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-03-31",
          "value": 6.64
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-04-30",
          "value": 7.05
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-05-31",
          "value": 7.68
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-06-30",
          "value": 8.19
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-07-31",
          "value": 8.06
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-08-31",
          "value": 6.96
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-09-30",
          "value": 6.04
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-10-31",
          "value": 5.89
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-11-30",
          "value": 6.12
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-12-31",
          "value": 6.28
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-01-31",
          "value": 6.15
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-02-29",
          "value": 6.27
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-03-31",
          "value": 5.78
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-04-30",
          "value": 5.58
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-05-31",
          "value": 5.94
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-06-30",
          "value": 5.41
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-07-31",
          "value": 5.42
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-08-31",
          "value": 7.01
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-09-30",
          "value": 6.16
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-10-31",
          "value": 6.73
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-11-30",
          "value": 6.91
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-12-31",
          "value": 6.77
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-01-31",
          "value": 7.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-02-28",
          "value": 7.11
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-03-31",
          "value": 6.85
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-04-30",
          "value": 6.59
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-05-31",
          "value": 6.49
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-06-30",
          "value": 6.17
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-07-31",
          "value": 6.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-08-31",
          "value": 6.09
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-09-30",
          "value": 5.71
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-10-31",
          "value": 5.74
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-11-30",
          "value": 5.12
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-12-31",
          "value": 5.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-01-31",
          "value": 5.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-02-28",
          "value": 5.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-31",
          "value": 5.14
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-30",
          "value": 5.27
        }
      ],
      "short_name": "Deficit / GDP",
      "formal_name": "Federal budget deficit, trailing twelve months, percent of nominal GDP",
      "update_cadence": "Monthly, with quarterly GDP denominator updates",
      "explainer": {
        "what_this_is": "A fiscal-arithmetic measure of the federal government's financing need.",
        "what_it_measures": "The trailing twelve months of federal deficits scaled by the latest available nominal GDP observation.",
        "calculation": "TTM MTS deficit divided by nominal GDP from FRED GDP.",
        "why_it_matters": "Persistent large deficits raise the amount of Treasury supply that must be financed or absorbed.",
        "source": "U.S. Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement and FRED GDP.",
        "update_cadence": "Monthly for Treasury data; quarterly for GDP.",
        "unit": "Percent of nominal GDP.",
        "caveats": "GDP denominator timing and one-off fiscal programs can distort near-term readings."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "debt_held_public_gdp",
      "title": "Debt held by the public / GDP",
      "subtitle": "Debt stock scaled by GDP",
      "unit": "%",
      "method": "FD-AR-03",
      "source": "FRED FYGFGDQ188S",
      "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYGFGDQ188S",
      "color": "#1b7f45",
      "latest": 98.244,
      "latest_date": "2025-10-01",
      "delta": "+0.82 pp",
      "status": "live",
      "source_status": "live",
      "reference_lines": [
        {
          "value": 100,
          "label": "100% of GDP"
        }
      ],
      "points": [
        {
          "date": "2015-01-01",
          "value": 72.467
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-01",
          "value": 71.527
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-07-01",
          "value": 71.318
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-10-01",
          "value": 74.314
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-01-01",
          "value": 75.191
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-04-01",
          "value": 74.484
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-07-01",
          "value": 75.044
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-10-01",
          "value": 75.641
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-01-01",
          "value": 74.556
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-04-01",
          "value": 73.93
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-07-01",
          "value": 74.555
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-10-01",
          "value": 73.978
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-01-01",
          "value": 75.936
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-04-01",
          "value": 75.233
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-07-01",
          "value": 75.864
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-10-01",
          "value": 77.067
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-01-01",
          "value": 76.848
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-04-01",
          "value": 75.73
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-07-01",
          "value": 77.478
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-10-01",
          "value": 78.362
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-01-01",
          "value": 79.208
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-04-01",
          "value": 102.957
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-07-01",
          "value": 96.928
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-10-01",
          "value": 98.027
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-01-01",
          "value": 97.029
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-04-01",
          "value": 95.422
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-07-01",
          "value": 93.009
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-10-01",
          "value": 93.369
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-01-01",
          "value": 94.665
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-04-01",
          "value": 92.546
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-07-01",
          "value": 92.345
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-10-01",
          "value": 91.665
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-01-01",
          "value": 90.808
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-04-01",
          "value": 92.561
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-07-01",
          "value": 93.854
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-10-01",
          "value": 94.848
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-01-01",
          "value": 95.908
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-04-01",
          "value": 94.809
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-07-01",
          "value": 95.981
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-10-01",
          "value": 96.761
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-01-01",
          "value": 96.308
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-04-01",
          "value": 95.048
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-07-01",
          "value": 97.428
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-10-01",
          "value": 98.244
        }
      ],
      "short_name": "Public debt / GDP",
      "formal_name": "Federal debt held by the public as percent of gross domestic product",
      "update_cadence": "Quarterly",
      "explainer": {
        "what_this_is": "A fiscal-arithmetic measure of the outstanding debt stock.",
        "what_it_measures": "Federal debt held by the public relative to GDP.",
        "calculation": "FRED series FYGFGDQ188S.",
        "why_it_matters": "A larger stock can increase rollover exposure and interest-rate sensitivity over time.",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Economic Data, FYGFGDQ188S.",
        "update_cadence": "Quarterly.",
        "unit": "Percent of GDP.",
        "caveats": "Debt/GDP alone does not establish fiscal dominance; maturity, holders, growth, and rates matter."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "term_premium_10y",
      "title": "10Y Treasury term premium",
      "subtitle": "ACM model estimate, percent",
      "unit": "%",
      "method": "FD-CE-01",
      "source": "Federal Reserve Bank of New York ACM",
      "source_url": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/data_indicators/term-premia-tabs",
      "color": "#c13b21",
      "latest": 0.727,
      "latest_date": "2026-04-30",
      "delta": "+0.06 pp",
      "status": "live",
      "source_status": "live",
      "reference_lines": [
        {
          "value": 0,
          "label": "Zero line"
        }
      ],
      "points": [
        {
          "date": "2015-01-30",
          "value": -0.253
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-02-27",
          "value": -0.046
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-31",
          "value": -0.023
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-30",
          "value": 0.159
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-29",
          "value": 0.26
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-06-30",
          "value": 0.498
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-07-31",
          "value": 0.26
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-08-31",
          "value": 0.276
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-09-30",
          "value": 0.216
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-10-30",
          "value": 0.194
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-11-30",
          "value": 0.142
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-12-31",
          "value": 0.122
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-01-29",
          "value": -0.008
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-02-29",
          "value": -0.233
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-03-31",
          "value": -0.157
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-04-29",
          "value": -0.174
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-05-31",
          "value": -0.276
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-06-30",
          "value": -0.501
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-07-29",
          "value": -0.603
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-08-31",
          "value": -0.606
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-09-30",
          "value": -0.511
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-10-31",
          "value": -0.265
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-11-30",
          "value": 0.145
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-12-30",
          "value": 0.196
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-01-31",
          "value": 0.189
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-02-28",
          "value": 0.028
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-03-31",
          "value": 0.007
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-04-28",
          "value": -0.076
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-05-31",
          "value": -0.194
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-06-30",
          "value": -0.158
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-07-31",
          "value": -0.114
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-08-31",
          "value": -0.314
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-09-29",
          "value": -0.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-10-31",
          "value": -0.25
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-11-30",
          "value": -0.342
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-12-29",
          "value": -0.461
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-01-31",
          "value": -0.333
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-02-28",
          "value": -0.195
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-03-29",
          "value": -0.398
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-04-30",
          "value": -0.333
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-05-31",
          "value": -0.405
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-06-29",
          "value": -0.37
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-07-31",
          "value": -0.36
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-08-31",
          "value": -0.442
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-09-28",
          "value": -0.336
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-10-31",
          "value": -0.209
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-11-30",
          "value": -0.365
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-12-31",
          "value": -0.52
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-01-31",
          "value": -0.578
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-02-28",
          "value": -0.507
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-03-29",
          "value": -0.697
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-04-30",
          "value": -0.546
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-05-31",
          "value": -0.802
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-06-28",
          "value": -0.798
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-07-31",
          "value": -0.906
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-08-30",
          "value": -1.264
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-09-30",
          "value": -1.132
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-10-31",
          "value": -1.024
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-11-29",
          "value": -0.983
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-12-31",
          "value": -0.762
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-01-31",
          "value": -1.093
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-02-28",
          "value": -1.256
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-03-31",
          "value": -1.168
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-04-30",
          "value": -1.261
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-05-29",
          "value": -1.218
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-06-30",
          "value": -1.195
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-07-31",
          "value": -1.338
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-08-31",
          "value": -1.078
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-09-30",
          "value": -1.144
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-10-30",
          "value": -0.884
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-11-30",
          "value": -0.936
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-12-31",
          "value": -0.782
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-01-29",
          "value": -0.503
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-02-26",
          "value": -0.087
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-03-31",
          "value": 0.315
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-04-30",
          "value": 0.183
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-05-28",
          "value": 0.155
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-06-30",
          "value": -0.248
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-07-30",
          "value": -0.466
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-08-31",
          "value": -0.462
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-09-30",
          "value": -0.289
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-10-29",
          "value": -0.457
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-11-30",
          "value": -0.697
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-12-31",
          "value": -0.654
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-01-31",
          "value": -0.633
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-02-28",
          "value": -0.767
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-03-31",
          "value": -0.834
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-04-29",
          "value": -0.371
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-05-31",
          "value": -0.364
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-06-30",
          "value": -0.324
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-07-29",
          "value": -0.852
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-08-31",
          "value": -0.736
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-09-30",
          "value": -0.495
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-10-31",
          "value": -0.186
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-11-30",
          "value": -0.73
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-12-30",
          "value": -0.561
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-01-31",
          "value": -0.78
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-02-28",
          "value": -0.474
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-03-31",
          "value": -0.711
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-04-28",
          "value": -0.722
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-05-31",
          "value": -0.67
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-06-30",
          "value": -0.747
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-07-31",
          "value": -0.614
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-08-31",
          "value": -0.501
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-09-29",
          "value": 0.159
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-10-31",
          "value": 0.411
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-11-30",
          "value": 0.064
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-12-29",
          "value": -0.327
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-01-31",
          "value": -0.196
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-02-29",
          "value": -0.15
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-03-28",
          "value": -0.255
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-04-30",
          "value": -0.029
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-05-31",
          "value": 0.013
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-06-28",
          "value": -0.116
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-07-31",
          "value": -0.105
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-08-30",
          "value": -0.119
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-09-30",
          "value": -0.104
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-10-31",
          "value": 0.169
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-11-29",
          "value": 0.091
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-12-31",
          "value": 0.486
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-01-31",
          "value": 0.495
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-02-28",
          "value": 0.267
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-03-31",
          "value": 0.377
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-04-30",
          "value": 0.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-05-30",
          "value": 0.746
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-06-30",
          "value": 0.631
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-07-31",
          "value": 0.64
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-08-29",
          "value": 0.783
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-09-30",
          "value": 0.622
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-10-31",
          "value": 0.574
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-11-28",
          "value": 0.594
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-12-31",
          "value": 0.761
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-01-30",
          "value": 0.774
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-02-27",
          "value": 0.607
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-31",
          "value": 0.663
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-30",
          "value": 0.727
        }
      ],
      "short_name": "10Y term premium",
      "formal_name": "10-year Treasury term premium, ACM estimate",
      "update_cadence": "Daily source, monthly dashboard sampling",
      "explainer": {
        "what_this_is": "A market-implied compensation measure for holding long-duration Treasury risk.",
        "what_it_measures": "The ACM estimate of the 10-year yield component not explained by expected short rates.",
        "calculation": "NY Fed ACM 10-year term premium estimate.",
        "why_it_matters": "A sustained rise can indicate higher compensation demanded for duration, inflation, or fiscal uncertainty.",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Bank of New York ACM term premium data.",
        "update_cadence": "Daily source; dashboard stores the latest monthly observation.",
        "unit": "Percent.",
        "caveats": "Term premium is model-estimated and can move for reasons unrelated to fiscal credibility."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "inflation_expectations_5y5y",
      "title": "5y5y inflation expectations",
      "subtitle": "Market-implied forward inflation compensation",
      "unit": "%",
      "method": "FD-CE-02",
      "source": "FRED T5YIFR",
      "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR",
      "color": "#6f3fb4",
      "latest": 2.26,
      "latest_date": "2026-05-22",
      "delta": "+0.01 pp",
      "status": "live",
      "source_status": "live",
      "reference_lines": [
        {
          "value": 2.5,
          "label": "Watch threshold"
        }
      ],
      "points": [
        {
          "date": "2015-01-30",
          "value": 2.01
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-02-27",
          "value": 2.17
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-31",
          "value": 2.01
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-30",
          "value": 2.16
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-29",
          "value": 2.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-06-30",
          "value": 2.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-07-31",
          "value": 2.12
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-08-31",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-09-30",
          "value": 1.75
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-10-30",
          "value": 1.86
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-11-30",
          "value": 1.88
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-12-31",
          "value": 1.77
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-01-29",
          "value": 1.63
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-02-29",
          "value": 1.61
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-03-31",
          "value": 1.75
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-04-29",
          "value": 1.82
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-05-31",
          "value": 1.61
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-06-30",
          "value": 1.42
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-07-29",
          "value": 1.67
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-08-31",
          "value": 1.67
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-09-30",
          "value": 1.75
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-10-31",
          "value": 1.87
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-11-30",
          "value": 2.11
        },
        {
          "date": "2016-12-30",
          "value": 2.06
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-01-31",
          "value": 2.16
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-02-28",
          "value": 2.15
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-03-31",
          "value": 2.17
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-04-28",
          "value": 2.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-05-31",
          "value": 1.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-06-30",
          "value": 1.83
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-07-31",
          "value": 1.97
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-08-31",
          "value": 1.94
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-09-29",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-10-31",
          "value": 1.97
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-11-30",
          "value": 1.99
        },
        {
          "date": "2017-12-29",
          "value": 2.06
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-01-31",
          "value": 2.24
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-02-28",
          "value": 2.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-03-29",
          "value": 2.18
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-04-30",
          "value": 2.24
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-05-31",
          "value": 2.11
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-06-29",
          "value": 2.16
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-07-31",
          "value": 2.24
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-08-31",
          "value": 2.18
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-09-28",
          "value": 2.25
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-10-31",
          "value": 2.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-11-30",
          "value": 2.17
        },
        {
          "date": "2018-12-31",
          "value": 1.91
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-01-31",
          "value": 2.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-02-28",
          "value": 2.06
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-03-29",
          "value": 1.98
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-04-30",
          "value": 2.05
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-05-31",
          "value": 1.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-06-28",
          "value": 1.85
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-07-31",
          "value": 1.96
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-08-30",
          "value": 1.75
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-09-30",
          "value": 1.71
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-10-31",
          "value": 1.64
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-11-29",
          "value": 1.72
        },
        {
          "date": "2019-12-31",
          "value": 1.86
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-01-31",
          "value": 1.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-02-28",
          "value": 1.49
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-03-31",
          "value": 1.25
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-04-30",
          "value": 1.42
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-05-29",
          "value": 1.47
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-06-30",
          "value": 1.52
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-07-31",
          "value": 1.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-08-31",
          "value": 1.91
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-09-30",
          "value": 1.76
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-10-30",
          "value": 1.81
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-11-30",
          "value": 1.86
        },
        {
          "date": "2020-12-31",
          "value": 2.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-01-29",
          "value": 2.05
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-02-26",
          "value": 1.91
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-03-31",
          "value": 2.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-04-30",
          "value": 2.25
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-05-28",
          "value": 2.27
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-06-30",
          "value": 2.17
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-07-30",
          "value": 2.24
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-08-31",
          "value": 2.18
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-09-30",
          "value": 2.23
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-10-29",
          "value": 2.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-11-30",
          "value": 2.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2021-12-31",
          "value": 2.25
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-01-31",
          "value": 2.06
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-02-28",
          "value": 2.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-03-31",
          "value": 2.34
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-04-29",
          "value": 2.46
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-05-31",
          "value": 2.32
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-06-30",
          "value": 2.08
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-07-29",
          "value": 2.33
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-08-31",
          "value": 2.38
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-09-30",
          "value": 2.16
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-10-31",
          "value": 2.37
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-11-30",
          "value": 2.27
        },
        {
          "date": "2022-12-30",
          "value": 2.27
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-01-31",
          "value": 2.21
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-02-28",
          "value": 2.28
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-03-31",
          "value": 2.24
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-04-28",
          "value": 2.16
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-05-31",
          "value": 2.29
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-06-30",
          "value": 2.26
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-07-31",
          "value": 2.47
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-08-31",
          "value": 2.33
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-09-29",
          "value": 2.48
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-10-31",
          "value": 2.44
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-11-30",
          "value": 2.31
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-12-29",
          "value": 2.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-01-31",
          "value": 2.28
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-02-29",
          "value": 2.26
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-03-28",
          "value": 2.26
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-04-30",
          "value": 2.39
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-05-31",
          "value": 2.36
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-06-28",
          "value": 2.32
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-07-31",
          "value": 2.35
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-08-30",
          "value": 2.29
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-09-30",
          "value": 2.29
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-10-31",
          "value": 2.28
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-11-29",
          "value": 2.19
        },
        {
          "date": "2024-12-31",
          "value": 2.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-01-31",
          "value": 2.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-02-28",
          "value": 2.18
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-03-31",
          "value": 2.15
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-04-30",
          "value": 2.17
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-05-30",
          "value": 2.29
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-06-30",
          "value": 2.27
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-07-31",
          "value": 2.32
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-08-29",
          "value": 2.35
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-09-30",
          "value": 2.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-10-31",
          "value": 2.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-11-28",
          "value": 2.17
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-12-31",
          "value": 2.24
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-01-30",
          "value": 2.19
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-02-27",
          "value": 2.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-31",
          "value": 2.06
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-30",
          "value": 2.25
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-22",
          "value": 2.26
        }
      ],
      "short_name": "5y5y inflation",
      "formal_name": "5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate",
      "update_cadence": "Daily source, monthly dashboard sampling",
      "explainer": {
        "what_this_is": "A credibility proxy for longer-run market-implied inflation compensation.",
        "what_it_measures": "The expected average inflation rate over a five-year period beginning five years ahead.",
        "calculation": "FRED T5YIFR, sampled at month end.",
        "why_it_matters": "Drifting longer-run inflation compensation can weaken the credibility backdrop for policy choices.",
        "source": "Federal Reserve Economic Data, T5YIFR.",
        "update_cadence": "Daily source; dashboard stores the latest monthly observation.",
        "unit": "Percent.",
        "caveats": "Inflation compensation includes liquidity and risk premia; it is not a pure survey expectation."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "realized_treasury_vol_proxy",
      "title": "10Y yield-change volatility",
      "subtitle": "Annualized basis points, 20 trading days",
      "unit": "annualized bp",
      "method": "FD-TM-01",
      "source": "FRED DGS10",
      "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
      "color": "#24476f",
      "latest": 77.8,
      "latest_date": "2026-05-21",
      "delta": "-0.5 bp",
      "status": "live",
      "source_status": "live",
      "reference_lines": [
        {
          "value": 55,
          "label": "Watch threshold"
        },
        {
          "value": 90,
          "label": "High threshold"
        }
      ],
      "points": [
        {
          "date": "2015-02-02",
          "value": 86.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-02-03",
          "value": 94.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-02-04",
          "value": 92.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-02-05",
          "value": 93.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-02-06",
          "value": 99.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-02-09",
          "value": 98.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-02-10",
          "value": 97.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-02-11",
          "value": 97.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-02-12",
          "value": 95.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-02-13",
          "value": 89.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-02-17",
          "value": 95.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-02-18",
          "value": 99.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-02-19",
          "value": 99.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-02-20",
          "value": 99.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-02-23",
          "value": 96.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-02-24",
          "value": 100.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-02-25",
          "value": 101.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-02-26",
          "value": 96.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-02-27",
          "value": 96.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-02",
          "value": 92.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-03",
          "value": 92.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-04",
          "value": 86.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-05",
          "value": 86.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-06",
          "value": 95.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-09",
          "value": 90.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-10",
          "value": 93.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-11",
          "value": 93.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-12",
          "value": 93.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-13",
          "value": 93.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-16",
          "value": 94.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-17",
          "value": 85.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-18",
          "value": 93.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-19",
          "value": 94.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-20",
          "value": 94.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-23",
          "value": 92.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-24",
          "value": 90.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-25",
          "value": 91.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-26",
          "value": 92.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-27",
          "value": 94.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-30",
          "value": 89.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-03-31",
          "value": 88.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-01",
          "value": 90.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-02",
          "value": 93.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-03",
          "value": 80.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-06",
          "value": 85.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-07",
          "value": 84.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-08",
          "value": 85.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-09",
          "value": 87.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-10",
          "value": 86.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-13",
          "value": 86.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-14",
          "value": 86.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-15",
          "value": 73.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-16",
          "value": 71.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-17",
          "value": 70.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-20",
          "value": 71.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-21",
          "value": 70.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-22",
          "value": 72.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-23",
          "value": 67.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-24",
          "value": 64.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-27",
          "value": 64.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-28",
          "value": 67.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-29",
          "value": 64.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-04-30",
          "value": 63.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-01",
          "value": 60.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-04",
          "value": 57.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-05",
          "value": 56.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-06",
          "value": 58.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-07",
          "value": 63.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-08",
          "value": 64.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-11",
          "value": 73.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-12",
          "value": 71.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-13",
          "value": 71.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-14",
          "value": 73.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-15",
          "value": 81.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-18",
          "value": 85.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-19",
          "value": 85.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-20",
          "value": 83.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-21",
          "value": 87.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-22",
          "value": 86.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-26",
          "value": 91.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-27",
          "value": 89.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-28",
          "value": 87.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-05-29",
          "value": 87.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-06-01",
          "value": 87.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-06-02",
          "value": 90.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-06-03",
          "value": 97.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-06-04",
          "value": 99.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-06-05",
          "value": 100.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2015-06-08",
          "value": 100.7
        },
        {
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          "value": 64.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-04",
          "value": 66.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-05",
          "value": 68.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-06",
          "value": 63.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-09",
          "value": 63.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-10",
          "value": 64.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-11",
          "value": 65.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-12",
          "value": 67.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-13",
          "value": 58.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-16",
          "value": 58.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-17",
          "value": 60.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-18",
          "value": 61.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-19",
          "value": 61.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-20",
          "value": 76.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-23",
          "value": 76.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-24",
          "value": 77.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-25",
          "value": 81.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-26",
          "value": 84.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-27",
          "value": 80.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-30",
          "value": 86.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03-31",
          "value": 89.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-01",
          "value": 89.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-02",
          "value": 89.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-03",
          "value": 90.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-06",
          "value": 89.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-07",
          "value": 89.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-08",
          "value": 88.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-09",
          "value": 86.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-10",
          "value": 86.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-13",
          "value": 84.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-14",
          "value": 85.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-15",
          "value": 83.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-16",
          "value": 83.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-17",
          "value": 70.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-20",
          "value": 68.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-21",
          "value": 67.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-22",
          "value": 64.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-23",
          "value": 57.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-24",
          "value": 57.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-27",
          "value": 50.7
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-28",
          "value": 47.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-29",
          "value": 50.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-30",
          "value": 50.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-01",
          "value": 49.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-04",
          "value": 52.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-05",
          "value": 53.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-06",
          "value": 57.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-07",
          "value": 59.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-08",
          "value": 60.5
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-11",
          "value": 61.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-12",
          "value": 60.2
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-13",
          "value": 59.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-14",
          "value": 59.4
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-15",
          "value": 65.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-18",
          "value": 65.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-19",
          "value": 66.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-20",
          "value": 78.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-21",
          "value": 77.8
        }
      ],
      "short_name": "10Y yield volatility",
      "formal_name": "20-day annualized volatility of daily 10-year Treasury yield changes",
      "update_cadence": "Daily source, monthly dashboard sampling",
      "explainer": {
        "what_this_is": "An open-data proxy for Treasury market functioning stress.",
        "what_it_measures": "Realized volatility in daily 10-year Treasury yield changes over the latest 20 observations.",
        "calculation": "Population standard deviation of daily DGS10 changes in basis points, multiplied by sqrt(252).",
        "why_it_matters": "Higher realized volatility can indicate more difficult market functioning or risk transfer conditions.",
        "source": "FRED DGS10, with Treasury yield-curve XML as fallback source.",
        "update_cadence": "Daily source; dashboard stores computed observations.",
        "unit": "Annualized basis points.",
        "caveats": "This is backward-looking and does not replace direct liquidity or auction metrics."
      }
    }
  ]
}