US fiscal dominance risk

A plain-English read on whether public debt costs, deficits, market functioning, and inflation expectations are starting to limit policy choices.

Risk score 54/100

Current state Elevated Watch conditions, not a regime call.

Low0-33 Elevated34-66 High67-100

Diagnostic pillars

Four public-data signals that feed the risk score.

How scoring works

Signal	Latest	1Y ago	5Y range	10Y range	Trend

Range bars show the historical low-to-high band for the selected window. The blue marker shows the latest reading.

Every public-data signal behind the current risk reading.

Fiscal pressure versus constraint-evidence proxies

Method

Pressure, weak constraint evidence
High pressure / low constraint

Dominance risk
High pressure / high constraint

Benign
Low pressure / low constraint

Constrained, low fiscal pressure
Low pressure / high constraint

Constraint evidence Fiscal pressure Current
Elevated

Snapshot: Jan 14, 2026

Loading rule-based fiscal pressure and market-constraint interpretation.

Public data feeds used in this snapshot.