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Files are generated by scripts/build_data.py from public Treasury,
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view model for rendering; full machine-readable artifacts are not public
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The website can display current readings, bounded chart samples, source health, and methodology without exposing full production datasets.
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Existing /data/* artifact paths return 401
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| Signal | Pillar | Description | Source | Frequency | Last updated | Schema |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest outlays / receipts (TTM) | Fiscal pressure | Interest burden relative to federal receipts. | U.S. Treasury FiscalData Monthly Treasury Statement | Monthly, after Treasury MTS release | Shown on dashboard | 0.3.0 |
| TTM deficit / GDP | Fiscal pressure | Trailing twelve-month deficit as a share of nominal GDP. | Treasury MTS and FRED GDP | Monthly, with quarterly GDP denominator updates | Shown on dashboard | 0.3.0 |
| Debt held by the public / GDP | Fiscal pressure | Federal debt held by the public as a share of GDP. | FRED FYGFGDQ188S | Quarterly | Shown on dashboard | 0.3.0 |
| 10Y Treasury term premium | Credibility and expectations | Model estimate of duration and uncertainty compensation. | Federal Reserve Bank of New York ACM | Daily source, monthly dashboard sampling | Shown on dashboard | 0.3.0 |
| 5y5y inflation expectations | Credibility and expectations | Market-implied longer-run inflation expectations proxy. | FRED T5YIFR | Daily source, monthly dashboard sampling | Shown on dashboard | 0.3.0 |
| 10Y yield-change volatility | Treasury market functioning | Open-data proxy for realized Treasury yield volatility. | FRED DGS10 | Daily source, monthly dashboard sampling | Shown on dashboard | 0.3.0 |
Methods
Fiscal dominance is an interpretive regime-risk question, not a directly observed metric. The dashboard separates observable fiscal pressure from Treasury market-functioning stress, policy-constraint proxies, and credibility signals.
GGreen = low risk
AAmber = watch
RRed = high risk
Glossary
| Term | Type | Definition | Usage discipline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal dominance | Interpretive regime concept | A condition where monetary policy choices become constrained by fiscal financing needs or market-functioning stress. | Reserved for the top-level regime-risk question. No single dashboard metric is labeled as proof of dominance. |
| Fiscal dominance risk index | Rule-based assessment | A conservative composite of fiscal pressure, credibility, and Treasury market-functioning indicators. | Reported as Low, Elevated, or High. It is an index reading, not a regime declaration. |
| Fiscal pressure | Computed category | Debt-service burden, deficit persistence, and debt-stock pressure observable in public data. | Used for interest, deficit, and debt metrics before making any broader fiscal-dominance inference. |
| Treasury market functioning | Market category | Signals about risk transfer, volatility, supply absorption, and market stress in Treasuries. | Used in primary UI and methods copy instead of colloquial market-structure shorthand. |
| Constraint evidence | Interpretive evidence bucket | Evidence that policy choices or market responses are constrained by financing or market-functioning conditions. | The current dashboard uses proxies; direct policy-stance and balance-sheet indicators are planned for a later release. |
| Credibility and expectations | Market category | Inflation compensation and term-premium gauges that can reflect confidence, uncertainty, and risk premia. | Used as supporting context and never as standalone fiscal-dominance evidence. |
Dashboard Label Map
| Dashboard label | Formal name | Source series or source rows | Method ID |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest outlays / receipts (TTM) | Interest outlays / federal receipts, trailing twelve months | Treasury MTS Table 1 receipts and MTS Table 3 interest-related outlay rows | FD-AR-01 |
| TTM deficit / GDP | Federal budget deficit, trailing twelve months, percent of nominal GDP | Treasury MTS Table 1 deficit and FRED GDP | FD-AR-02 |
| Debt held by the public / GDP | Federal debt held by the public as percent of gross domestic product | FRED FYGFGDQ188S | FD-AR-03 |
| 10Y Treasury term premium | 10-year Treasury term premium, ACM estimate | Federal Reserve Bank of New York ACM term premium data | FD-CE-01 |
| 5y5y inflation expectations | 5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate | FRED T5YIFR | FD-CE-02 |
| 10Y yield-change volatility | 20-day annualized volatility of daily 10-year Treasury yield changes | FRED DGS10, with Treasury yield-curve XML fallback | FD-TM-01 |
Metric Inventory
| # | Metric | What it captures | Transformation | Bands (0-2) | Weight | Pitfalls and caveats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Interest outlays / receipts (TTM)Fiscal pressure | Debt-service burden relative to federal receipts. | TTM interest outlays / TTM receipts |
0: <12%; 1: 12-20%; 2: ≥20% | 24 | Computed from MTS interest-related outlay rows; debt composition and maturity structure matter. |
| 2 | TTM deficit / GDPFiscal pressure | Baseline financing need and primary balance pressure. | TTM deficit / nominal GDP |
0: <4%; 1: 4-7%; 2: ≥7% | 16 | Scored. One-off policy programs and GDP denominator effects can distort month-to-month reads. |
| 3 | Debt held by the public / GDPFiscal pressure | Stock of debt to be absorbed or refinanced over time. | Debt held by public / GDP |
0: <80%; 1: 80-100%; 2: ≥100% | 14 | Scored. Debt/GDP is a stock; path, maturity profile, and investor base matter. |
| 4 | 10Y yield-change volatilityTreasury market functioning | Open proxy for Treasury market stress in place of proprietary volatility indices. | 20d annualized std dev of daily DGS10 changes in bp |
0: <55 bp; 1: 55-90 bp; 2: ≥90 bp | 16 | Realized volatility is backward-looking and may miss liquidity stress before prices move. |
| 5 | 10Y Treasury term premiumCredibility and expectations | Compensation for duration and uncertainty beyond expected short rates. | NY Fed ACM 10Y estimate |
0: <0.25%; 1: 0.25-1.0%; 2: ≥1.0% | 16 | Model estimates revise and are sensitive to specification. |
| 6 | 5y5y inflation expectationsCredibility and expectations | Market-implied longer-run inflation expectations proxy. | FRED T5YIFR |
0: <2.5%; 1: 2.5-3.0%; 2: ≥3.0% | 14 | Inflation compensation includes risk premia and liquidity effects. |
| Not scored (presentational only): the 2D regime map plots the three fiscal-pressure components (y-axis) against the three credibility / market-functioning components (x-axis). This positioning reuses the same 0-2 component scores but does not add a seventh weight and is not part of the 0-100 index below. | ||||||
Weights and 0-100 Normalization
All six metrics above are scored and weighted. The weights sum to exactly 100, so the composite is itself a 0-100 score. The two-dimensional regime map is presentational and carries no weight.
| Metric | Category | Weight | Max contribution (band 2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest outlays / receipts (TTM) | Fiscal pressure | 24 | 24 |
| TTM deficit / GDP | Fiscal pressure | 16 | 16 |
| Debt held by the public / GDP | Fiscal pressure | 14 | 14 |
| 10Y yield-change volatility | Treasury market functioning | 16 | 16 |
| 10Y Treasury term premium | Credibility and expectations | 16 | 16 |
| 5y5y inflation expectations | Credibility and expectations | 14 | 14 |
| Total | 100 | 100 |
How to reproduce the 0-100 score. For each metric, map its latest
value to a band using the thresholds in the inventory above:
value < low → 0, low ≤ value < high → 1,
value ≥ high → 2. Convert each band to a fraction by dividing
by 2 (0 → 0, 1 → 0.5, 2 → 1.0), multiply by that metric's weight,
sum across all six metrics, and round to the nearest integer:
score = round( Σ (band / 2) × weight )
A metric at band 2 contributes its full weight; band 1 contributes half its weight; band 0 contributes nothing. Because the weights sum to 100, the score ranges from 0 (all metrics at band 0) to 100 (all metrics at band 2). Example: interest at band 2 (24) + deficit at band 1 (8) + debt at band 1 (7) + volatility at band 0 (0) + term premium at band 2 (16) + expectations at band 1 (7) = 62 → Elevated.
Index bands. The rounded integer score maps to one label:
score ≤ 33 → Low; 34 ≤ score ≤ 66 → Elevated;
score ≥ 67 → High.
Chart Explainer Template
Each v0.3.0 chart series carries explainer fields in the private full artifact and bounded public dashboard view model. The UI info control will render these fields in a later chart UX release.
| Field | Purpose |
|---|---|
what_this_is | Plain-English definition of the metric. |
what_it_measures | Observable quantity or proxy captured by the series. |
calculation | Formula or source transform needed to reproduce the chart. |
why_it_matters | Reason the metric belongs in the risk assessment. |
source | Source dataset, series, or source row names. |
update_cadence | Expected refresh frequency for the source and dashboard series. |
unit | Displayed unit and scale. |
caveats | Common misreadings and limits of inference. |
Aggregate Score
The conservative composite scores six live public indicators on 0-2 bands: interest outlays / receipts (weight 24), deficit / GDP (16), debt / GDP (14), 10Y yield-change volatility (16), term premium (16), and 5y5y inflation expectations (14). The weights sum to 100, so the weighted sum is itself the 0-100 dashboard score. See Weights and 0-100 Normalization for the exact formula and a worked example.
Regime Thresholds
Low
0-33 Elevated
34-66 High
67-100
0-33 Elevated
34-66 High
67-100
What Would Change the Call
- Sustained improvement: composite score below the lower threshold for three consecutive updates.
- Sustained deterioration: composite score above the upper threshold for three consecutive updates.
- Severe override: any single pillar in red for three consecutive updates can elevate the call.
- Data revision: revisions crossing a threshold are documented in the changelog.
Regime Map
The 2D map separates fiscal pressure from constraint-evidence proxies. The x-axis increases from weak to strong constraint evidence, and the y-axis increases from low to high fiscal pressure. The top-right quadrant is the only quadrant labeled dominance risk.